TED Magazine - February 2017

slowed from .75% the year before to .7%, and eight states lost population. Both figures were the worst since the Great Depression. This suggests that long-term demand for many goods and services—as well as labor supply —will grow more slowly than in the past decade, when yearly population increases averaged more than .9%. In the NAED South Central Re- gion, three states achieved growth rates of 1% or more: Florida ( 1.8%), Georgia ( 1.1%), and North Carolina (1%). Two states lost residents: Illinois (- 37,500, the nation’s largest popula- tion loss) and Mississippi (-664, which was an improvement over the prior year’s change of - 3,010). Electrical distributors should expect sluggish demand in these states. They should also be concerned if they serve states with a continuing slowdown in popu- lation growth such as Virginia (where population increases slowed for five straight years, from an above-average 1% in 2011 to .5% in 2016) and Louisiana (.7% in 2011, .3% in 2016). • Construction employment As noted, construction is the most important market for many electrical distributors. Seasonally adjusted, data from the BLS covering the year-over- year change in construction employ- ment are a reasonable substitute for unobtainable information on con- struction spending by state. The figures for November 2016 show there were four states in the NAED South Central Region with less construction employment than in November 2015: Alabama (-4%), Kentucky (-3%), and Arkansas and Illinois (-1% each). These states likely have the weakest prospects for electri- cal distributors focused on construc- tion markets. Based on these indicators, several states are outperforming the United States as a whole and thus present the brightest 2017 prospects for elec- trical distributors in the region. South Carolina comes out on top on all five measures, while Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are ahead on four. At the other extreme, the indicators are flashing a warning to electrical dis- tributors in Illinois and Mississippi, which significantly trail the nation on all five measures, and in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana, which lag on four measures. However, all distributors should expect to see new risks—and opportunities—from a changing policy scene in 2017. ; Simonson is chief economist for the As- sociated General Contractors of America. He can be reached at solomonsimonson gmail.com.
www.tEDmag.com Feb. 17 • the ELECTRICAL DIS TRIBUTOR 17
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